Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Total Fertility Rate in India has fallen from 3.2 in 2000 to 2.3 in 2013

The Sample Registration System 2013 data says India's TFR, which had remained stagnant in 2011 and 2012 at 2.4, finally has dropped by 0.1 points in 2013. Education mainly of fair sex has been found to play a major role in influencing TFR.  Total Fertility rate in India has fallen from 3.2 in 2000 to 2.3 in 2013.   Thus, at the all India level, India have not reached replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1, but the gap is now not that alarming as it was in the year 2000.  In the year 2012, TFR varied from 2.6 in rural areas to 1.8 in urban areas.  It seems that at present, a rural woman (having a TFR of 2.6) at the National level would have about one child more than an urban woman (having a TFR of 1.8).  In order to tackle the problem, one need to focus on rural areas that too in the States/UTs of Bihar, UP, MP, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Assam and Gujarat, Haryana, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and D&N Haveli.
According to the SRS 2013 data, twenty-three states/uts have achieved replacement level fertility of 2.1 and below. However, 12 states/Uts still have a higher TFR than this. These include Bihar (3.4), UP (3.1), MP (2.9), Rajasthan (2.8), Jharkhand (2.7), Chhattisgarh (2.6), Assam and Gujarat (2.3), Haryana (2.2), Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and D&N Haveli. For the latter three states/UTs the data is not available for the year 2008 onwards, but seeing the time series data one may expect the same as mentioned here.  Among the bigger States, it varies from 1.7 in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal to 3.5 in Bihar. For rural areas, it varies from 1.7 in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Tamil Nadu to 3.6 in Bihar. For urban areas, such variation is from 1.2 in Himachal Pradesh and West Bengal to 2.5 in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Chart 15 presents levels of TFR by residence for India and bigger States, 2012.

States, which have not recorded a dip in TFR in 2013 as against 2012, include many states and the states are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh and Jummu & Kashmir.  The dip had been in other major states was only by one point except for Uttar Pradesh it was by two points. 

According to the National Population Policy 2000, India should have reached the replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 by 2010, and ought to attain population stabilization at 1450 million by 2045. Population stabilization is when the size of the population remains unchanged. It is also called the stage of zero population growth. However, India now expects to reach the population stabilization TFR of 2.1 at 1650 million by 2060.

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