Thursday, January 17, 2013

Food grain Production in India will not have a peak of 250 million tones in the year 2011-12


The Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) is estimating food grain production of 250 million tones for 2011-12.  There are others who estimate the same it to be over 250 million tones.  In the past it has never touched this figure at all.  The highest was last year at the level of 242 million tones. 
The All India data for the years 1966-67 to 2010-11 for Area, Production and Yield is as below:

All-India  Food Grains
Year
Area
Production
Yield
  1
2
3
4
1966-67
115.30
74.23
644
1967-68
121.42
95.05
783
1968-69
120.43
94.01
781
1969-70
123.57
99.50
805
1970-71
124.32
108.42
872
1971-72
122.62
105.17
858
1972-73
119.28
97.03
813
1973-74
126.54
104.67
827
1974-75
121.08
99.83
824
1975-76
128.18
121.03
944
1976-77
124.36
111.17
894
1977-78
127.52
126.41
991
1978-79
129.01
131.90
1022
1979-80
125.21
109.70
876
1980-81
126.67
129.59
1023
1981-82
129.14
133.30
1032
1982-83
125.10
129.52
1035
1983-84
131.16
152.37
1162
1984-85
126.67
145.54
1149
1985-86
128.02
150.44
1175
1986-87
127.20
143.42
1128
1987-88
119.69
140.35
1173
1988-89
127.67
169.92
1331
1989-90
126.77
171.04
1349
1990-91
127.84
176.39
1380
1991-92
121.87
168.38
1382
1992-93
123.15
179.48
1457
1993-94
122.75
184.26
1501
1994-95
123.86
191.50
1546
1995-96
121.02
180.42
1491
1996-97
123.58
199.44
1614
1997-98
123.85
192.26
1552
1998-99
125.17
203.60
1627
1999-00
123.11
209.80
1704
2000-01
121.05
196.81
1626
2001-02
122.78
212.85
1734
2002-03
113.86
174.77
1535
2003-04
123.45
213.19
1727
2004-05
120.08
198.36
1652
2005-06
121.60
208.60
1715
2006-07
123.71
217.28
1756
2007-08
124.07
230.78
1860
2008-09
122.83
234.47
1909
2009-10
121.33
218.10
1798
2010-11
125.73
241.56
1921
2011-12 T
123
238
1936
Area in Million Hectares
Production in Million Tonnes
Yield in Kg./Hectare.
T: Trend Estimates

It can be seen that the Sown Area remains all most static and is around 123 million Hectares.  It is only the yield which has been increasing over many years by now.  If we estimate by linear trend, which would give very stable estimates for all the three variables, one may note that area (trend) estimate is about 123 million hectares and production would be around 238 million tones for the year 2011-12 for All-India.  If one is optimistic about the Area under Food Grains and take it at the last year level of 125.73 million hectares (but not the historic average of 123.86) and yield as 1936 kilograms per hectare (rising trend estimate), then as well the production would be around 243 million tones.

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