The Indian Council of Agriculture Research
(ICAR) is estimating food grain production of 250 million tones for 2011-12. There are others who estimate the same it to
be over 250 million tones. In the past
it has never touched this figure at all.
The highest was last year at the level of 242 million tones.
The All India data for the years 1966-67 to
2010-11 for Area, Production and Yield is as below:
All-India Food Grains
|
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Year
|
Area
|
Production
|
Yield
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
1966-67
|
115.30
|
74.23
|
644
|
1967-68
|
121.42
|
95.05
|
783
|
1968-69
|
120.43
|
94.01
|
781
|
1969-70
|
123.57
|
99.50
|
805
|
1970-71
|
124.32
|
108.42
|
872
|
1971-72
|
122.62
|
105.17
|
858
|
1972-73
|
119.28
|
97.03
|
813
|
1973-74
|
126.54
|
104.67
|
827
|
1974-75
|
121.08
|
99.83
|
824
|
1975-76
|
128.18
|
121.03
|
944
|
1976-77
|
124.36
|
111.17
|
894
|
1977-78
|
127.52
|
126.41
|
991
|
1978-79
|
129.01
|
131.90
|
1022
|
1979-80
|
125.21
|
109.70
|
876
|
1980-81
|
126.67
|
129.59
|
1023
|
1981-82
|
129.14
|
133.30
|
1032
|
1982-83
|
125.10
|
129.52
|
1035
|
1983-84
|
131.16
|
152.37
|
1162
|
1984-85
|
126.67
|
145.54
|
1149
|
1985-86
|
128.02
|
150.44
|
1175
|
1986-87
|
127.20
|
143.42
|
1128
|
1987-88
|
119.69
|
140.35
|
1173
|
1988-89
|
127.67
|
169.92
|
1331
|
1989-90
|
126.77
|
171.04
|
1349
|
1990-91
|
127.84
|
176.39
|
1380
|
1991-92
|
121.87
|
168.38
|
1382
|
1992-93
|
123.15
|
179.48
|
1457
|
1993-94
|
122.75
|
184.26
|
1501
|
1994-95
|
123.86
|
191.50
|
1546
|
1995-96
|
121.02
|
180.42
|
1491
|
1996-97
|
123.58
|
199.44
|
1614
|
1997-98
|
123.85
|
192.26
|
1552
|
1998-99
|
125.17
|
203.60
|
1627
|
1999-00
|
123.11
|
209.80
|
1704
|
2000-01
|
121.05
|
196.81
|
1626
|
2001-02
|
122.78
|
212.85
|
1734
|
2002-03
|
113.86
|
174.77
|
1535
|
2003-04
|
123.45
|
213.19
|
1727
|
2004-05
|
120.08
|
198.36
|
1652
|
2005-06
|
121.60
|
208.60
|
1715
|
2006-07
|
123.71
|
217.28
|
1756
|
2007-08
|
124.07
|
230.78
|
1860
|
2008-09
|
122.83
|
234.47
|
1909
|
2009-10
|
121.33
|
218.10
|
1798
|
2010-11
|
125.73
|
241.56
|
1921
|
2011-12 T
|
123
|
238
|
1936
|
Area in Million Hectares
|
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Production in Million Tonnes
|
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Yield in Kg./Hectare.
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T: Trend Estimates
|
It can be seen that the Sown
Area remains all most static and is around 123 million Hectares. It is only the yield which has been
increasing over many years by now. If we
estimate by linear trend, which would give very stable estimates for all the
three variables, one may note that area (trend) estimate is about 123 million
hectares and production would be around 238 million tones for the year 2011-12
for All-India. If one is optimistic
about the Area under Food Grains and take it at the last year level of 125.73
million hectares (but not the historic average of 123.86) and yield as 1936 kilograms per hectare (rising trend estimate), then as well the production would be around
243 million tones.
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