Friday, May 25, 2012

Total Fertility Rate in India Drops from 3.2 in 2000 to 2.5 in 2010 as per SRS 2010 data

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children expected to be born per woman during her reproductive years.  In case of India, it has fallen from 3.2 in 2000 to 2.5 in 2010 i.e. by 22% over the past decade.
The latest Sample Registration System 2010 data says India's TFR, which had remained stagnant in 2008 and 2009 at 2.6, finally has dropped by 0.1 points in 2010. Education mainly of fair sex has been found to play a major role in influencing TFR.  At present, a rural woman (having a TFR of 2.9) at the National level would have about one child more than an urban woman (having a TFR of 2.0). 
According to the SRS 2010, twenty two states/uts have achieved replacement level fertility of 2.1 and below. However, 13 states/Uts still have a higher TFR than this. These include Bihar (3.7), UP (3.5), MP (3.2), Rajasthan (3.1), Jharkhand (3), Chhattisgarh (2.8), Assam and Gujarat (2.5), Haryana, Odisha (erstwhile Orissa) (2.3), Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and D&N Haveli. For the latter three states/UTs the data is not available for the year 2010, but seeing the time series data one may expect the same as mentioned here.   
States which have not recorded a dip in TFR in 2010 as against 2009 include states like Gujarat (2.5), Karnataka (2), Maharashtra (1.9), Tamil Nadu (1.7) and Delhi (1.9).  Kerala is the only state which has recorded an increase in TFR - from 1.7 in 2009 to 1.8 in 2010.
 According to the National Population Policy 2000, India should have reached there replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 by 2010, and ought to attain population stabilization at 1450 million by 2045. Population stabilization is when the size of the population remains unchanged. It is also called the stage of zero population growth. 

1 comment:

  1. its a region specific problem mostly.
    i suggest a region specific strategy. tfr's must be analyzed by district and community. this must then be linked to performance on ssa, mnrega and such other schemes. only this will work

    sujay rao mandavilli