According to the SRS
2010, twenty two states/uts have achieved replacement level fertility of 2.1 and
below. One may have a question that if twenty two states have achieved
replacement level fertility of 2.1 and many are below 2.1 for quite a few
years, then why these states are showing positive population growth.
Kerala is having TFR
much below 2.0 even through the last decade, but is depicting downward positive
growth in population as given below:
Percentage Decadal Variation for Kerala State as per various Censuses
conducted
1961-71
|
1971- 81
|
1981- 91
|
1991-01
|
2001-11
|
+26.29
|
+19.24
|
+14.32
|
+9.43
|
+4.86
|
The positive growth is
due to population momentum factor. Although
the replacement level has been achieved, but the girls born much earlier would
add one or more children when they get married and start producing their off
springs. This population momentum occurs due to the past
high birth rate when the couples born in the past will be in the reproductive
ages in the coming years resulting in higher number of marriages and subsequent
child birth which cannot be avoided by policies implemented henceforth.
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