Thursday, January 9, 2014

Food grain Production in India will not surpass again the 250 million tones peak in the year 2012-13


The Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) estimated food grain production of 250 million tones for 2011-12.  In the past it has never touched this figure at all.  It came true. The highest was last year at the level of over 257 million tones. 
The All India data for the years 1966-67 to 2011-12 for Area, Production and Yield is as below:

All-India  Food Grains


Year
Area
Production
Yield
  1
2
3
4
1966-67
115.30
74.23
644
1967-68
121.42
95.05
783
1968-69
120.43
94.01
781
1969-70
123.57
99.50
805
1970-71
124.32
108.42
872
1971-72
122.62
105.17
858
1972-73
119.28
97.03
813
1973-74
126.54
104.67
827
1974-75
121.08
99.83
824
1975-76
128.18
121.03
944
1976-77
124.36
111.17
894
1977-78
127.52
126.41
991
1978-79
129.01
131.90
1022
1979-80
125.21
109.70
876
1980-81
126.67
129.59
1023
1981-82
129.14
133.30
1032
1982-83
125.10
129.52
1035
1983-84
131.16
152.37
1162
1984-85
126.67
145.54
1149
1985-86
128.02
150.44
1175
1986-87
127.20
143.42
1128
1987-88
119.69
140.35
1173
1988-89
127.67
169.92
1331
1989-90
126.77
171.04
1349
1990-91
127.84
176.39
1380
1991-92
121.87
168.38
1382
1992-93
123.15
179.48
1457
1993-94
122.75
184.26
1501
1994-95
123.86
191.50
1546
1995-96
121.02
180.42
1491
1996-97
123.58
199.44
1614
1997-98
123.85
192.26
1552
1998-99
125.17
203.60
1627
1999-00
123.11
209.80
1704
2000-01
121.05
196.81
1626
2001-02
122.78
212.85
1734
2002-03
113.86
174.77
1535
2003-04
123.45
213.19
1727
2004-05
120.08
198.36
1652
2005-06
121.60
208.60
1715
2006-07
123.71
217.28
1756
2007-08
124.07
230.78
1860
2008-09
122.83
234.47
1909
2009-10
121.33
218.11
1798
2010-11
126.67
244.49
1930
2011-12
125.03
257.44
2059
2012-13 T
125 R
246.88
1975 T

It can be seen that the Sown Area under food-grains remains all most static and is around 123 million Hectares.  Even time trend is around this figure.  Only for the last two years it has exceeded 125 million hectares.  Retention of this figure can be safely taken for the year 2012-13. It is only the yield which has been increasing over many years by now.  If we estimate the yield by linear trend, it comes out to be around 1975 Kgs. Per hectare. Using these two figures, production estimate would be around 247 million tones for the year 2012-13 for All-India. 

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