Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Will India be achieving fourth Millennium Development Goal on Child Mortality?


The Target for Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) is: “Reduce by two-thirds the mortality among children under five in 1990”.
Where India stand now:

India’s Under Five Mortality (U5MR) was estimated at 125 per 1000 live births in 1990 and thus target for this MDG in case of India is to have U5MR as 41.7 per 1000 live births or to reduce it by 83.3 per 1,000 live births by the end of 2015.  India’s U5MR declined from 125 per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 59 per 1,000 live births in 2010 (as per official agency estimate).
India: Under5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) per 1000 live Births
Years
1992
1998
2005
2008
2009
2010
1990 (Est)
2015 (Target)
U5MR
109.3
94.9
74.3
69
64
59
125
41.7
Sample Registration System, ORGI, GOI.
In another five years, U5MR is expected to further decline to 47.6 per 1,000 live births, if the trend in the entire available data is used. 
As per UNDP, India would be falling short of the target and is expected to be 70 per 1,000 live births instead of 42 per 1,000 live births by 2015.
As it is well known that India has been focusing on Child Health since 2005 through its flagship scheme of National Rural Health Mission.  If one uses the trend seen just after 2005, the achievement would be around 43.7, which is much near to the set target of 42 per 1,000 live births.   
In view of these statistics, child survival in India needs sharper focus than being attempted particularly in the higher U5MR States than national average. These States are Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (these are not in order of priority).  These states of India are likely to fall significantly short of their respective targets. Focus should be on better managing neonatal and other childhood illnesses. The other States namely, Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and other north-eastern states are likely to achieve their targets possibly even earlier than 2015.

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