Monday, May 28, 2012

Will National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) achieve its target in respect of Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)?


One of the flag scheme of Government of India is National Rural Health Mission (NRHM).  One of the main objective of this scheme was to bring down the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to the level of 30 by the terminal year of the mission i.e. by 2012.  Looking at the Government of India official data on IMR for the years (2003 – 2010), one may predict, by assuming that whatever has been done or is being done continues this year as well, one can’t achieve the required target in case of All-India.  Rather it falls quite short at the level of 45 and the same is due to most of the major states of India.  Major hurdle states are eight EAG states and Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Gujarat, Haryana and to some extent Karnataka, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh states.  If this rate continues, the target for all-India may be achieved by the year 2020.  The state of Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha would achieve much latter in the year 2027, 2025, 2023 and 2021 respectively.  Following table gives out some more details in which one may be interested in.
Sl.No.
    States
IMR
IMR = 30
Prediction for 2012
Prediction  Year
ALL INDIA
45
2020
1
Andhra Pradesh
44
2019
2
Assam
58
2027
3
Bihar
47
2019
4
Chhattisgarh
47
2018
5
Gujarat
43
2019
6
Haryana
46
2020
7
Jharkhand
41
2019
8
Karnataka
36
2015
9
Kerala
13
@
10
Madhya Pradesh
58
2023
11
Maharashtra
26
@
12
Odisha
56
2021
13
Punjab
32
2013
14
Rajasthan
52
2020
15
Tamil Nadu
20
@
16
Uttar Pradesh
58
2025
17
W. Bengal
27
@
18
Arunachal Pradesh
31
@
19
Delhi
34
**
20
Goa
7
@
21
Himachal Pradesh
40
2016
22
J & K
46
**
23
Manipur
14
@
24
Meghalaya
58
**
25
Mizoram
45
@
26
Nagaland
29
@
27
Sikkim
32
@
28
Tripura
31
@
29
Uttarakhand
41
**
30
A&N Islands
33
@
31
Chandigarh
28
@
32
D&N Haveli
28
**
33
Daman & Diu
19
@
34
Lakshadweep
26
@
35
Puducherry
22
@
@ : Already Achieved
**:  Prediction not done due to Erratic trend

Friday, May 25, 2012

Kerala State achieved replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 long before, but still have positive population growth


According to the SRS 2010, twenty two states/uts have achieved replacement level fertility of 2.1 and below. One may have a question that if twenty two states have achieved replacement level fertility of 2.1 and many are below 2.1 for quite a few years, then why these states are showing positive population growth.    
Kerala is having TFR much below 2.0 even through the last decade, but is depicting downward positive growth in population as given below:
Percentage Decadal Variation for Kerala State as per various Censuses conducted

1961-71
1971- 81
1981- 91
1991-01
2001-11
+26.29
+19.24
+14.32
+9.43
+4.86

The positive growth is due to population momentum factor.  Although the replacement level has been achieved, but the girls born much earlier would add one or more children when they get married and start producing their off springs.  This  population momentum occurs due to the past high birth rate when the couples born in the past will be in the reproductive ages in the coming years resulting in higher number of marriages and subsequent child birth which cannot be avoided by policies implemented henceforth.

Total Fertility Rate in India Drops from 3.2 in 2000 to 2.5 in 2010 as per SRS 2010 data


Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children expected to be born per woman during her reproductive years.  In case of India, it has fallen from 3.2 in 2000 to 2.5 in 2010 i.e. by 22% over the past decade.
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The latest Sample Registration System 2010 data says India's TFR, which had remained stagnant in 2008 and 2009 at 2.6, finally has dropped by 0.1 points in 2010. Education mainly of fair sex has been found to play a major role in influencing TFR.  At present, a rural woman (having a TFR of 2.9) at the National level would have about one child more than an urban woman (having a TFR of 2.0). 
According to the SRS 2010, twenty two states/uts have achieved replacement level fertility of 2.1 and below. However, 13 states/Uts still have a higher TFR than this. These include Bihar (3.7), UP (3.5), MP (3.2), Rajasthan (3.1), Jharkhand (3), Chhattisgarh (2.8), Assam and Gujarat (2.5), Haryana, Odisha (erstwhile Orissa) (2.3), Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and D&N Haveli. For the latter three states/UTs the data is not available for the year 2010, but seeing the time series data one may expect the same as mentioned here.   
States which have not recorded a dip in TFR in 2010 as against 2009 include states like Gujarat (2.5), Karnataka (2), Maharashtra (1.9), Tamil Nadu (1.7) and Delhi (1.9).  Kerala is the only state which has recorded an increase in TFR - from 1.7 in 2009 to 1.8 in 2010.
 According to the National Population Policy 2000, India should have reached there replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 by 2010, and ought to attain population stabilization at 1450 million by 2045. Population stabilization is when the size of the population remains unchanged. It is also called the stage of zero population growth. 

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Petrol price up 7.54 to 73.18, sharpest hike ever


TIMES NEWS NETWORK 
New Delhi: By the time you read this, the price of petrol would have gone up by more than Rs 7.50 a litre across the country.  After adding state taxes, petrol will cost Rs 73.18 a litre in Delhi, Rs 78.57 in Mumbai, Rs 77.88 in Kolkata and Rs 77.53 a litre in Chennai. This marks an increase of around 10%.

Why oil marketers say price hike was unavoidable 

Every 1 drop in rupee’s value against dollar adds 8,000 crore import burden on oil marketers. Pre-hike pump prices corresponded to $109/barrel of petrol in regional bulk markets. The average price in the first fortnight of May was $124/barrel. 

Crude prices fell to a 7-month low near $91 a barrel on Wednesday. But this refers to Brent crude in Singapore, not Indian mix of imports.


Above is the extract from a daily news paper.  It is normally reported that any increase in petrol prices have over 50% of Government taxes. The tax component increase is not and should not be dependent on import price of crude oil or on rupee fall vis a vis dollor price i.e. on exchange rate.  The quantum of taxes is already fixed before any increase.  By such quantum increases, governments should not take undue benefits like this and make fool of people.  They should come out with actual facts behind all this and openly say that this is one of the very easy means of raising their revenues outside the budget processes.   The subsidies on diesel, LPG and more so on the Kerosene are being financed through increase in petrol prices only.  At the same time, poor people may not be getting all the benefits out of this as their most of the purchases have to be from the parallel economy which is very much existing and flourishing in India.